How the tracker works.

What counts

Any significant layoff announced or filed between 2026-01-01 and 2026-10-18, whether or not AI is involved. That includes every 2026 state WARN notice in the states we cover, every SEC Form 8-K Item 2.05 (exit or restructuring) filing we can find, and major company-wide announcements confirmed by the company or by major outlets. In total that comes to 1,103 events and 372,490 counted workers.

WARN notices are filed per site. We group them into one company-level event: notices from the same employer within about 60 days are combined, and notices that match a company-wide announcement are attached to it. Every site-level row is still available in the WARN locations CSV (1,757 rows).

Sources, in order of trust

1. Government filings: state WARN databases, using the official downloadable files where a state offers them, and SEC 8-K filings from EDGAR.
2. Company statements: press releases, memos, earnings calls, and regulatory filings.
3. Major news outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, WSJ, CNBC, and others), checked event by event.

Other trackers are used only as leads. Nothing is copied from them; every lead is checked against a primary or major source before it goes in. Several leads turned out to be 2024 or 2025 announcements, or headcounts nobody actually confirmed, and those were left out.

The AI score (0–100)

Please read this part: the AI score is an evidence-based estimate of how strongly public evidence ties a layoff to AI. It is not a measured probability. No one publishes the "true" cause of a layoff, so the score can't be checked against ground truth. It's a fixed, transparent rule applied the same way to every event, and every row shows its score math.

Step 1: AI evidence (take the strongest one; they don't add up)

Base	Evidence tag	Meaning
90	ai_explicit_replacement	Company explicitly says AI/automation is doing the work or replacing roles
78	ai_cited_reason	Company names AI/automation among the stated reasons for the cuts
65	fund_ai	Cuts made to fund or redirect resources to AI
62	ai_reskill_replace	Roles cut while hiring 'AI-native' replacements
60	ai_replacing_work_reported	Credible reporting or company data shows AI/automation absorbing the work
55	ai_disruption	AI disrupted the business (e.g. AI search cutting traffic/demand)
55	warn_reason_automation	WARN notice cites automation/technology as the cause
45	exec_ai_efficiency	Executives link AI to efficiency/productivity, but not as the stated cause
40	sec_ai_language	8-K Item 2.05 restructuring text mentions AI/automation
35	automation_mention	Plan mentions automation/digitalization generally (not AI-specific)
30	press_ai_link	Press or analysts tied the cuts to AI; company did not
25	automation_physical_mention	Physical/network automation mentioned alongside the cuts

Step 2: Modifiers

• +5 if the cuts fall in AI-exposed roles (tech, support, back-office, white-collar). This applies only when there is already some AI evidence.
• +3 if the AI link comes from a primary source (the company itself or an SEC filing).
• −5 for each non-AI cause cited alongside it (tariffs, weak demand, a merger…), up to −15.
• Cap: if the company explicitly says AI was not the reason, the score is capped at 15, or at 25 if there is a separate documented AI efficiency or funding link.

Step 3: No AI evidence at all

Score	Tag	Meaning
3	bankruptcy_or_shutdown	Bankruptcy / company shutdown
3	facility_closures	Plant, store or site closure
3	supply_shortage	Input/supply shortage (e.g. cattle)
3	seasonal_or_temporary	Seasonal / temporary layoff
5	tariffs	Tariffs / trade
5	divestiture_or_sale	Business sold or divested
5	financial_distress	Financial losses / distress
5	relocation	Relocation
5	government_funding	Government funding / contract cuts
6	demand_or_customer_loss	Weak demand, lost customer or contract
6	merger_integration	Merger / acquisition integration
6	market_exit	Exiting markets
6	currency_costs	Currency / cost pressure
8	outsourcing	Outsourcing / offshoring
8	offshoring_reversal	Moving work between countries
8	takeover_defense	Fending off a takeover
10	voluntary_buyout	Voluntary buyouts
12	cost_cutting	Cost-cutting / efficiency
12	layers_bureaucracy	Removing management layers / bureaucracy
12	performance_or_priorities	Performance / shifting priorities
12	reorg_consolidation	Reorganization / consolidation
12	net_headcount_change	Net headcount decline disclosed (not an announced layoff)
10	no_info	No reason given (most WARN notices)

Industries heavily exposed to AI (software, IT services, finance, media, customer support) get +5 even with no AI evidence. That's why some WARN-only tech layoffs land in the "Low" band and not "Minimal".

Bands

Band	Score	Events	Workers
High	70+	42	70,502
Mid-high	50+	10	18,571
Mid	30+	17	14,413
Low	15+	110	48,051
Minimal	0+	924	220,953

Headcounts

• We use the company's announced number, or the number in the 8-K. If there isn't one, we use the sum of the WARN notices we have, and label it that way.
• For a range, we count the low end. Percent-only, "up to", and unconfirmed figures are shown as text but not counted, and we never estimate.
• Net headcount declines found in annual reports (e.g. Dell) are shown for context but aren't counted as layoffs.
• Many announcements are global and multi-year; WARN counts only U.S. sites with 50+ affected workers. Our totals mix the two, so treat them as a floor for tracked events, not a census.

Coverage & gaps

WARN data loaded for these states:

State	Site notices	Workers	Source
CA	1,167	58,927	official source
TX	109	17,370	official source
NJ	113	14,131	official source
CO	46	5,501	official source
PA	61	9,937	official source
IL	134	18,533	official source
WA	127	27,725	official source

Not yet covered by WARN: New York (dashboard only, no downloadable file), Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, Georgia, Oregon and Virginia (their sites block automated access or offer no data table; we don't get around those blocks), and the other states we haven't added yet. Large layoffs in those states are still included when there's an announcement, SEC filing or major news report. Illinois is partial: updates to notices first filed in 2025 are left out. Searching SEC full text for Item 2.05 finds fewer filings than we expected, so some 8-K restructurings may be missing.

Benchmark: Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 573,195 announced U.S. job cuts from January through September 2026, and 120,136 where employers cited AI. Challenger counts announcements, including ones without WARN filings, and doesn't publish a company-level list, so the gap between our numbers and theirs is mostly events we haven't documented with a source yet.

Updates

The data is rebuilt every week. A script downloads the latest WARN files and SEC filings and re-scores every event. New news events are added by hand only after they're checked against sources. Any new WARN or SEC entry that mentions AI is flagged for a person to review before its score goes above the WARN or SEC default.

What we don't do

We don't estimate headcounts, we don't publish anonymous claims without a public source, and we don't call any one layoff "caused by AI". The score describes the evidence and nothing more.

Corrections

See something wrong? Tell us. We fix errors and re-score as soon as they're confirmed.